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In the course of the race for the White House in 2016, Hungary's prime minister emerged as the exclusive European Union leader to endorse the Republican candidate. This support was hardly surprising, considering Mr Orbán's championing of contentious ideas like population replacement concept and the restrictions against press independence. Observers have noted that Mr Orbán practically wrote the playbook for the Make America Great Again campaign, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon lauding him as the "Trump before Trump".

Electoral Support Before Hungary's Polls

Recently, ahead of key votes in Hungary just half a year off, the American leader reciprocated with support. While Orbán aims for a fifth straight win governing a country he calls an illiberal democracy, his political group is behind in surveys. A visit to the US capital produced more than some autographed Trump merchandise; it secured considerably more valuable campaign boosts.

Special Treatment and Financial Shields

Despite earlier instructing EU countries on the necessity to eliminate all energy imports from the Russian Federation, and threatening penalties against nations still to buy Russian oil, Donald Trump consented to grant a special exemption for Hungary – the largest EU consumer of Russian crude. As Orbán stated, the American leadership also agreed to extend a fiscal buffer to Hungary's capital if it runs into any upcoming challenges, especially as Brussels is still blocking substantial EU funds to Hungary because of failures to uphold the rule of law.

The details of this agreement remain vague. Yet the US president has shown his readiness to help out like-minded partners after the US provided a $20bn emergency credit line to the Argentine leader, the South American leader. While Mr Orbán did not secure a presidential tour to the Hungarian capital, the Washington talks still turned out to be a profitable day’s work.

European Apprehensions and Geopolitical Stakes

In the corridors of the EU, Mr Trump’s intervention will have emphasized the geopolitical stakes of the coming election, prior to which the centrist challenger, the rival candidate, holds a clear edge in opinion data. Heads of state are accustomed not to anticipate steady principles from the Trump White House, and have grown used to the US president’s efforts to belittle the European Union. But Mr Orbán’s exemption – which came at the price of an pledge to purchase American natural gas and nuclear power – blatantly weakens the bloc's aims to phase out Russian fossil fuel imports by the target date.

• Since 2022, the largest EU buyers of Russian oil, these two countries, have provided more than ten billion pounds to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• Simultaneously, Budapest has consistently deployed the blocking vote to impede moves in negotiations for Ukraine's EU membership.
• As Europe strives to create a coordinated approach for aiding the Ukrainian government, and strengthening its hand in any upcoming peace talks, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the diplomatic table remains a significant obstacle.

Rival's Approach

The opposition candidate has avoided vowing a drastic turnaround on Ukraine, and centered his campaign on home affairs, while highlighting the necessity for Hungary to begin operating as a constructive EU member. Following so many years of trolling, EU officials can only wait and hope. Mr Orbán’s indifference to fundamental European principles, such as the upholding of minority rights and the independence of civil society institutions, has remained a humiliating embarrassment for the European Union. His ongoing blocking tactics toward Ukrainian matters could harm its long-term safety.